Determining risk of a regime shift in a coupled arid Social-Ecological System

Abstract

Southern Africa has been identified as a climate change hot-spot, warming at about twice the global rate. The projected warming and drying of this arid and semi-arid region will limit the options for adaptation to climate change, especially in marginalized communities. A particular risk is that climate change may cause an abrupt, irreversible ‘regime shift’ in ecological processes and functions with cascade effects on coupled social ecological systems and profound consequences for the capacity of those systems to support livelihoods. Together with southern African and German partners, the Gobabeb Namib Research Institute and Namibia University of Science and Technology recently launched a SASSCAL-funded project called TIPping Points Explained by Climate Change (abbreviated TIPPECC) to 1) to assess the risk of climate change induced regime shifts or tipping points in southern Africa, 2) to provide a range of climate services, and 3) to co-produce with affected communities, policymakers, and natural resource managers adaptation options to safeguard against the effects of such tipping points should they occur. The Namibian contribution to TIPPECC (TIPPECC-Kunene) focuses on the ari zone pastoralist rangeland system of the Ovahimba of northern Kunene. Ovahimba have inhabited the region for over 200 years, surviving several intense droughts. The pastoralist lifestyle is finely attuned to its environment, adapting to seasonal and longer-term fluctuations in their resources. However, several factors, including population growth and increased sedentarisation have put pressure on the whole social-ecological system (SES), making it vulnerable to climate change and subsequent regime shifts in their resource base. TIPPECC-Kunene aims to use both traditional ecological knowledge and scientific data to determine 1) the probability of climate tipping points leading to regime shifts in the SES, and 2) those factors that will cause changes and/or shifts, with an emphasis on the role that climate tipping points will play in this. We further aim 3) to co-develop, with affected communities, feasible adaptation strategies to ongoing global change, ensuring alignment with inherent coping strategies. TIPPECC-Kunene is organised around eight thematic groups, including studies on vegetation change and degradation, livestock foraging ecology, changes in resource access rules, adaptation, and livelihoods, and the role of boreholes in driving social and environmental change.